tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2850462849314268040.post7743316910273342701..comments2024-03-10T00:26:57.262-08:00Comments on The Dance of the Hippo: A piece of the puzzle?Karlhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11654006671545294361noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2850462849314268040.post-38138048555058262492016-11-21T06:11:31.438-08:002016-11-21T06:11:31.438-08:00This is unrelated to Clinton/Trump but will you be...This is unrelated to Clinton/Trump but will you be looking at India and their new stance on currency? Curious what your thoughts are....Adriennehttp://www.martinimade.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2850462849314268040.post-43793283057664255772016-11-12T11:21:58.905-08:002016-11-12T11:21:58.905-08:00Fascinating charts, Karl, especially the last ones...Fascinating charts, Karl, especially the last ones. Thanks you. <br />To me it looks like Hillary lost because she misunderstood that a critical segment of her base (the working class in the rust belt and Florida who tend to be independent and mostly supported Obama)was furious with her. They voted "not Hillary" and not so much "for Trump." Those votes carried disproportionate weight both because they were switchers (worth twice as much as new voters because they subtract one from her and add one to him) and because they live in pivotal states (whereas a lost and/or gained vote in NY or CA does nothing for her, for example.) <br />As absentee votes are tallied it is expected that Hillary's popular vote margin will grow and probably approach 2%. So it looks like on the whole she did successfully turn out the vote,it's just that she failed to get the ones that mattered most. There has also been speculation that her get out the vote effort in the rust belt actually benefited Trump because her campaign was motivating switchers and they didn't know it. Strange times.<br />I had a very bad feeling early on when I saw her campaign slogan. "I'm with Her" was disastrously tone deaf--if you know you don't have people's trust, then you can't ask them to put up bumper stickers and yard signs that tell the whole world they do. It turns your supporters into dupes and fools. When party allegiance was stronger, Bill could tack toward the middle and the base went along. But in this election the working class basically said fool me once, fool me twice.<br />normhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11184391569431364729noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2850462849314268040.post-70976754110653611142016-11-10T10:07:32.460-08:002016-11-10T10:07:32.460-08:00I would even disagree more with that re-phrasing. ...I would even disagree more with that re-phrasing. With the exception of WI, MI, PA, Clinton did win all the states the polls showed her winning. The two exceptions were NC and FL, but the polls on those were always either super-tight or contradictory.Jason Antrosiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05012947323032077384noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2850462849314268040.post-41372467024503232402016-11-10T02:46:45.270-08:002016-11-10T02:46:45.270-08:00Good point. I guess it would be more accurate to s...Good point. I guess it would be more accurate to say, "state after state that polling showed her winning." Each one chipped away at the roughly 320 EV's that were being forecast in the morning, and at some point some two or three of them became states she needed to win.Karlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11654006671545294361noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2850462849314268040.post-69316214027254464772016-11-09T18:39:59.083-08:002016-11-09T18:39:59.083-08:00Good analysis, but I disagree with your characteri...Good analysis, but I disagree with your characterization of "state after state that Clinton couldn’t afford to lose." It was really just three states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. Those three states & Clinton would be the president-elect. Wisconsin, of course, seemed to be Clinton's, so much so that Trump's aides cancelled a rally there at the last minute (there may have also been some voter suppression with their id laws). Michigan remains un-called. It was again supposed to be relatively easy for Clinton, and Pennsylvania of course polls tilted Clinton throughout. But again--those three states and it would be Clinton. Now, she could have done the same thing by winning Florida + North Carolina, but those were always see-saw battlegrounds, unlike those three.Jason Antrosiohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05012947323032077384noreply@blogger.com